User talk:Raconcosa81787

What gets lost in most the eye directed to how well teams rush and pa...

There's little doubt that rushing and passing numbers would be the main instrument of choice for handicappers seeking to examine team strength and the accuracy of the idea spread for any given game. My research is not any different in a few respects--many of my programs rely on basic reviews such as for example ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play figures to reveal conditions that have already been profitable versus the line.

What gets lost in all the attention directed to how well groups hurry and pass the ball; but, is the fact that there are other equally essential aspects of team play which can be just like predictive in nature as some of the additionally used sizes of team skill.

One statistics that is involved by such area frequently flies under the radar of handicappers associated with team penalties and as we will examine here, specific kinds of penalties can be a specially powerful handicapping tool in the best circumstances.

I've always found fines to be a fascinating part of the NFL sport and their effect is undeniable--who hasn't felt the sting of a mistimed punishment that instantly breathes new life into a drive that was over only moments before with a spread success all but planted up. Inopportune charges can cost a a game in the flash of an eye and turn a spread champion right into a loss faster than T.O. can autograph a ball (ultimately zone obviously).

I have actually monitored penalty yardage figures since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (a average that takes penalties called on Opponents minus penalties called on the staff in question) is the foundation for another successful system that is 78-14 ATS previously 13 months.

Whilst it is good to know how many yards of penalties a team averages per game, or had in a previous game, this sort of analysis doesn't reveal something by what specific TYPES of penalties a team will be considered and the actual manner in which the final fee distance total listed in the box score was attained.

Is the staff involved taking a high number of unpleasant holding calls due to a lack of size on the point? Or, are they getting hit with a variety of move interference calls because of a second-string CB forced in to duty as a result of an injury? By separating penalties in to more detailed categories and considering them in line with the amount of calls, in place of yards, we can begin to have greater answers for questions like those presented above.

Eventually, almost every charge called in the current NFL game could be given to at least one of the next 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)

2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)

3) Play Book Execution Penalties (PBEP)

4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)

5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)

6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The type that's the focus of this article could be the third one listed: Play Book Execution Penalties. This group includes any offense related to the break down of play calls. Types of these include: Illegal clusters, shifts, motion, photos, participation, alterations and procedures; Delay of game (in certain circumstances ); Illegal forward passes; 12 males on the field; Ineligible devices visit link and therefore on. For a full breakdown on the other categories, please consult page 11 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.

The group average for PBEP is generally around 0.7 calls per recreation (on each team). Illinois was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP's against with a average of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with a against average of 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone statistic, PBEP is an excellent yardstick for measuring the quality of a coaching staff and also has an indication if participants are used in schemes where they're comfortable and have the mandatory skills to achieve success. While some, such as for instance the Cardinals, position near the base It's no accident that groups like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average year after year.

When it comes to handicapping versus the purpose spread, PBEPA becomes a good tool when groups with an very high PBEPA are analyzed.

Since the 2002 season, groups with a PBEPA average significantly more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.4) certainly are a dismal 183-229 ATS (44.4%) from the number. In only the past 5 times, setting bets based on this simple method alone could have netted you a neat profit of $2,720 with a choice of $110 to get right back $100 on each game.

For those who prefer to have a lot of activity early in the summer season, this kind of system is for you: a complete 49 games were required between Week 2 and 5 since '02 and the ATS history in these cases: 7-42 ATS!

There's actually a second 'Foundation ', or, Primary condition that I love to use because of this condition and that is: to only include activities where in actuality the opponent features a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Avg (DSPA). When this disorder is included, the system's record is paid down to 61-117 ATS (34.2%) and profits in the past 5 years jump to $4,990.

DSP fines require banners cast mainly on Cornerbacks and Safeties, frequently for Defensive Pass Interference and Illegal Contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS charges is something that needs further study on my part, but, suffice it to state that for whatever reasons, they're tightly intertwined and the radical improvement that this example benefits when only groups with a greater DSPA average are included is evidence of their relationship.

Rounding out this system, certainly are a number of Secondary conditions, all of which make sense given the context of the Primary conditions involved. Big Underdogs of > = 10 points aren't a good play here and the exact same could be said of situations where the group with a large PBEPA average is facing an coming off a Quarter Comeback in their last game and might be constantly in place for a let-down. Games that meet both if these conditions are eliminated.

Groups coming off their Bye week are also good contrary to the spread in this situation (remember, this is a bad system all things considered), because they have presumably had a supplementary week to work through a number of their issues.

Listed here are everything.

(Notes: ASM represents Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved with this method at one time or yet another. WT% could be the percentage of teams that are.500 or better and SPR could be the typical Spread for teams in this situation.)

Program #22 Summary

Main Problems (Blocks)

1) Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average of > +1.4 Per Game.

2) Opponent features a larger Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Exclude Dogs of > =10 Points.

2) Team perhaps not coming off a Bye Week.

3) Opponent not coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback.

4) Exclude Over/Under (OU) of < 38.

Process Stats

ASM: -6.9

Home%: 55.6

Dog%: 50.0

TDIS%: 84.4

WT%: 48.1

SPR: -0.30

Top Teams: ARI( 15 ); CIN( 10 ); PHI( 10 ); SEA( 10)

System Records

General (Since '02 ): 18-88 ATS

2006 Season: 0-8 ATS

2005 Season: 5-27 ATS

2004 Season: 8-31 ATS

Last 3 Results (Pick in Brackets)

2006 WK8--GB 31 ARI 14 (ARI +3.5) L

2006 WK4--STL 41 DET 34 (DET +5.5) M

2006 WK4--ATL 32 ARI 10 (ARI +7.5) L